The Impact of Housing Markets on Consumer Debt: Credit Report Evidence from 1999 to 2012

We estimate the response of consumer debt portfolios to pronounced housing market swings from 1999 to 2012 using Equifax-sourced credit report data and a variety of identification approaches. We find: (i) the extraordinary climb in home equity debt from 2002 to 2006 is an expression of a stable, longer-term relationship between house price growth and home equity borrowing; (ii) all preboom homeowners, and older and prime postboom homeowners, demonstrate near dollar-for-dollar substitution between (expensive) credit card and (cheap) home equity debt in response to home equity changes; and (iii) little evidence of substitution between home equity and student loan debt.