Climate Change Impacts on Maize Production in the Warm Heart of Africa

被引:52
作者
Msowoya, Kondwani [1 ]
Madani, Kaveh [2 ]
Davtalab, Rahman [1 ]
Mirchi, Ali [3 ,4 ]
Lund, Jay R. [5 ]
机构
[1] Univ Cent Florida, Dept Civil Environm & Construct Engn, Orlando, FL 32816 USA
[2] Imperial Coll London, Ctr Environm Policy, London SW7 2AZ, England
[3] Univ Texas El Paso, Dept Civil Engn, El Paso, TX 79968 USA
[4] Univ Texas El Paso, Ctr Environm Resource Management, El Paso, TX 79968 USA
[5] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Davis, CA 95616 USA
关键词
Climate change; Maize; Corn; Rainfed agriculture; Food security; Malawi; Lilongwe District; CROP PRODUCTION; MODEL; ADAPTATION;
D O I
10.1007/s11269-016-1487-3
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
Agriculture is the mainstay of economy in Malawi - the warm heart of Africa. It employs 85 % of the labour force, and produces one third of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 90 % of foreign exchange earnings. Maize farming covers over 92 % of Malawi's agricultural land and contributes over 54 % of national caloric intake. With a subtropical climate and similar to 99 % rainfed agriculture, Malawi relies heavily on precipitation for its agricultural production. Given the significance of rainfed maize for the nation's labour force and GDP, we have investigated climate change effects on this staple crop. We show that rainfed maize production in the Lilongwe District, the largest maize growing district in Malawi, may decrease up to 14 % by mid-century due to climate change, rising to as much as 33 % loss by the century's end. These declines can substantially harm Malawi's food production and socioeconomic status. Supplemental irrigation, crop diversification and natural conservation methods are promising adaptation strategies to improve Malawi's food security and socioeconomic stability.
引用
收藏
页码:5299 / 5312
页数:14
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