Range Size and Niche Breadth as Predictors of Climate-Induced Habitat Change in Epipactis (Orchidaceae)

While there is mounting evidence that ongoing changes in the climate system are shifting species ranges poleward and to higher altitudes, responses to climate change vary considerably between species. In general, it can be expected that species responses to climate change largely depend on how broad their ecological niches are, but evidence is still scant. In this study, we investigated the effects of predicted future climate change on the availability of suitable habitat for 14 Epipactis (Orchidaceae) species, and tested whether habitat specialists would experience greater changes in the extent of their habitats than habitat generalists. We used Maxent to model the ecological niche of each species in terms of climate, soil, elevation and land-use and projected it onto climate scenarios predicted for 2061-2080. To test the hypothesis that temperate terrestrial orchid species with small ranges or small niche breadths may be at greater risk under climate change than species with wide ranges or large niche breadths, we related niche breadth in both geographic and environmental space to changes in size and location of suitable habitat. The habitat distributions of half of the species shifted northwards in future projections. The area of suitable habitat increased for eight species but decreased for the remaining six species. If expansion at the leading edge of the distribution was not possible, the area of suitable habitat decreased for 12 species. Species with wide niche breadth in geographic space experienced greater northwards expansions and higher habitat suitability scores than species with small niche breadth. Niche breadth in environmental space was not significantly related to change in habitat distribution. Overall, these results indicate that terrestrial orchid species with a wide distribution will be more capable of shifting their distributions under climate change than species with a limited distribution, but only if they are fully able to expand into habitats at the leading edge of their distributions.