Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios

被引：167

作者：

Cai, Wenju ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Ng, Benjamin ^{[3
]}

Wang, Guojian ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Santoso, Agus ^{[3
,4
]}

Wu, Lixin ^{[1
,2
]}

Yang, Kai ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Ocean Univ China, Inst Adv Ocean Studies, Key Lab Phys Oceanog, Qingdao, Peoples R China

[2] Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao, Peoples R China

[3] CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Ctr Southern Hemisphere Oceans Res CSHOR, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[4] Univ New South Wales, Australian Res Council ARC Ctr Excellence Climate, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[5] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China

来源：

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | 2022年 / 12卷 / 03期

关键词：

EL-NINO; FREQUENCY; AMPLITUDE;

D O I：

10.1038/s41558-022-01282-z

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) underpins its global impact, and its future change is a long-standing science issue. In its sixth assessment, the IPCC reports no systematic change in ENSO SST variability under any emission scenarios considered. However, comparison between the 20th and 21st century shows a robust increase in century-long ENSO SST variability under four IPCC plausible emission scenarios. Sea surface temperature variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean dictates the strength of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. CMIP6 models under four IPCC emission scenarios show increased variability in the 21st century from the 20th century.

引用

页码：228 / +

页数：11

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