Adaptive management plans rooted in quantitative ecological predictions of ecosystem processes: putting monitoring data to practical use

The adoption of adaptive management plans has been advocated in order to ensure the most effective management of natural habitats. Here, it is demonstrated how a hierarchical structural equation model that is fitted to temporal ecological monitoring data from a number of sites may be used to generate quantitative local ecological predictions and how these predictions may form the basis of adaptive management plans. Local ecological predictions will be made for the cover of the dwarf shrub cross-leaved heath (Erica tetralix) on Danish wet heathlands, which is an indicator of the conservation status of wet heathlands under different management scenarios. Based on a realistic example, the model predictions conclude that grazing by livestock on wet heathlands with a relatively low cover of cross-leaved heath cannot be recommended as the only management practice. Generally, ecological monitoring data may be used to generate quantitative and credible local adaptive management plans where uncertainty is taken into account.