The Simulated Customer - Computer-based Market Analysis using the Example of Electric Vehicles

In traditional market analysis aggregated data sets of individual consumer preferences and/ or consumer behavior are frequently used to identify future potential for innovation. These methods, however, neglect the effects of social interactions and temporal dynamics relevant for innovation diffusion. Novel approaches rooted in artificial intelligence and social network analysis research enable to model these complex processes in realistic computer models and to simulate potential market developments. In a case study investigating the acceptance of electric vehicles we developed an agent-based model and simulated target group specific scenarios of diffusion. Our results indicate that there is a high potential for electric vehicles in certain segments of the market, which could achieve considerable market share if a suitable choice of products is available. Moreover, the flexible structure of our model allows to explore the impact of various interventions (e.g. marketing strategies) as well as the analysis of potential acceptance of further innovation fields.