Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming-Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Evaluating the impacts of land-use change (LUC) on ecosystem services (ESs) is necessary for regional sustainable development, especially for the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC), an ecologically sensitive and fragile region. This study aimed to assess the impacts of LUC on the ESs and provide valuable information for regional planning and management in the FPENC. To accomplish this, we assessed LUC in the FPENC from 2010 to 2020 and simulated land-use patterns in 2030 under three plausible scenarios: the business as usual scenario (BAUS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS). Then, we quantified five ESs (including crop production, water yield, soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage) for 2020-2030 and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies among ESs in all scenarios. The results show that FPENC experienced expanding farming land and built-up land throughout 2010-2020. Under the BAUS and EDS from 2000 to 2030, especially EDS, the increase in farming land and built-up land will continue. As a result, crop production and water yield will increase, while soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage will decrease. In contrast, EPS will increase soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage at the cost of a decline in crop production and water yield. These results can provide effective reference information for future regional planning and management in the farming-pastoral ecotone.