The impact of climate change on farming system selection in Ghana

Farmers are already responding to climate change by adjusting their practices. An important adaptation strategy is the switching of farm types, that is, switching from a vulnerable farming system to one that is more resilient. Using household, farm, and climate data (8700 observations) from Ghana, we estimate a multinomial logit in order to determine the factors that influence the selection of farm types and the implications of those choices. As expected, we find that climate determines the choice of farming system. Based on the multinomial estimates, a simulation of the effects of climate change shows that farmers will likely adapt by switching from environmentally sensitive specialised food-crop and tree-based (plantation) farms to specialised livestock and mixed (food-crop and livestock) farms. All things being equal, a decline in tree-based farms resulting from a climate induced agro-ecological shift (for example, conversion of forest to savannah) or a shortening of the growing season will imply a drop in the aggregate value of agricultural output since plantations are currently the most profitable farm type.