Extreme Temperature Events in Serbia in Relation to Atmospheric Circulation

被引：6

作者：

Tosic, Ivana ^{[1
]}

Putnikovic, Suzana ^{[1
]}

Tosic, Milica ^{[1
]}

Lazic, Irida ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Belgrade, Inst Meteorol, Fac Phys, Dobracina 16, Belgrade 11000, Serbia

来源：

ATMOSPHERE | 2021年 / 12卷 / 12期

关键词：

extreme temperatures; extreme temperature indices; atmospheric circulation patterns; multiple linear regression models; Serbia; HEAT WAVES; EUROPEAN SUMMER; WEATHER TYPES; RECENT TRENDS; INDEXES; PRECIPITATION; VARIABILITY;

D O I：

10.3390/atmos12121584

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

In this study, extremely warm and cold temperature events were examined based on daily maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperatures observed at 11 stations in Serbia during the period 1949-2018. Summer days (SU), warm days (Tx90), and heat waves (HWs) were calculated based on daily maximum temperatures, while frost days (FD) and cold nights (Tn10) were derived from daily minimum temperatures. Absolute maximum and minimum temperatures in Serbia rose but were statistically significant only for Tx in winter. Positive trends of summer and warm days, and negative trends of frost days and cold nights were found. A high number of warm events (SU, Tx90, and HWs) were recorded over the last 20 years. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were applied to find the relationship between extreme temperature events and atmospheric circulation. Typical atmospheric circulation patterns, previously determined for Serbia, were used as predictor variables. It was found that MLR models gave the best results for Tx90, FD, and Tn10 in winter.

引用

页数：16

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