Projected Changes in Climate Extremes over the Northeastern United States

被引:114
作者
Ning, Liang [1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ,5 ]
Riddle, Emily E. [4 ]
Bradley, Raymond S. [3 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Key Lab Virtual Geog Environm, Minist Educ, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[2] Nanjing Normal Univ, Jiangsu Key Lab Numer Simulat Large Scale Complex, Sch Math Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
[3] Univ Massachusetts, Northeast Climate Sci Ctr, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
[4] Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA
[5] Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
DOWNSCALING EXTREMES; STATISTICAL-METHODS; NORTH-AMERICA; PRECIPITATION; IMPACTS; MODELS; TEMPERATURE; VARIABILITY; OUTPUT; CMIP5;
D O I
10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00150.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Projections of historical and future changes in climate extremes are examined by applying the bias-correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD) statistical downscaling method to five general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For this analysis, 11 extreme temperature and precipitation indices that are relevant across multiple disciplines (e.g., agriculture and conservation) are chosen. Over the historical period, the simulated means, variances, and cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of each of the 11 indices are first compared with observations, and the performance of the downscaling method is quantitatively evaluated. For the future period, the ensemble average of the five GCM simulations points to more warm extremes, fewer cold extremes, and more precipitation extremes with greater intensities under all three scenarios. The changes are larger under higher emissions scenarios. The inter-GCM uncertainties and changes in probability distributions are also assessed. Changes in the probability distributions indicate an increase in both the number and interannual variability of future climate extreme events. The potential deficiencies of the method in projecting future extremes are also discussed.
引用
收藏
页码:3289 / 3310
页数:22
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