Optimal Learning Under Robustness and Time-Consistency

被引:4
作者
Epstein, Larry G. [1 ]
Ji, Shaolin [2 ]
机构
[1] Boston Univ, Dept Econ, Boston, MA 02215 USA
[2] Shandong Univ, Zhongtai Secur Inst Financial Studies, Jinan 250100, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
ambiguity; robust decisions; learning; partial information; optimal stopping; sequential testing of simple hypotheses; Ellsberg Paradox; recursive utility; time-consistency; model uncertainty; AMBIGUITY; RISK; RATIONALITY;
D O I
10.1287/opre.2019.1899
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
We model learning in a continuous-time Brownian setting where there is prior ambiguity. The associated model of preference values robustness and is time-consistent. It is applied to study optimal learning when the choice between actions can be postponed, at a per-unit-time cost, in order to observe a signal that provides information about an unknown parameter. The corresponding optimal stopping problem is solved in closed form, with a focus on two specific settings: Ellsberg's two-urn thought experiment expanded to allow learning before the choice of bets, and a robust version of the classical problem of sequential testing of two simple hypotheses about the unknown drift of a Wiener process. In both cases, the link between robustness and the demand for learning is studied.Y
引用
收藏
页码:1317 / 1329
页数:14
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