Predicting outcomes and complications following radioiodine therapy in Graves' thyrotoxicosis

Objective Radioiodine (RAI) is an effective treatment for Graves' thyrotoxicosis but is associated with a failure rate of 15% and may be a risk factor for thyroid eye disease (TED) and weight gain. We sought to examine predictors of RAI failure, weight gain, TED and patient satisfaction. Design Retrospective cohort study. Patients A total of 655 episodes of RAI in Graves' thyrotoxicosis patients (2006-2015). Measurements Biochemical assessment, including TFTs and thyrotropin receptor antibodies (TRAb), clinical features (eg, TED, weight and thionamide use) and patient questionnaire. Results The treatment failure rate was 17%. Failure was greater with higher fT4 (P = 0.002) and higher TRAb (P = 0.004). Failure rate was 42.2% when TRAb >40 U/L. Median weight gain was 3.2 kg in those with normal fT4 prior to RAI and 5.8 kg when fT4 was elevated (P < 0.001). New TED developed in 7.6% but was not associated with post-RAI dysthyroidism. Treatment satisfaction was generally high (median response 8/10). Conclusions Treatment failure after RAI occurs in predictable groups and this should be reflected in the information provided to patients. Weight gain is common and may not entirely be explained by a return to pre-thyrotoxic baseline. We were unable to detect any significant impact of post-RAI dysthyroidism on weight gain, TED or thyroid symptoms in this large cohort.