Long-term change of the Pacific North Equatorial Current bifurcation in SODA

The long-term change of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation in the Pacific Ocean is assessed based on the recently developed Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA, version 2.2.4). It is found that the NEC bifurcation latitude (NBL) has shifted southward over the past 60 years, although it displayed a slight northward migration from 1970 to 1992. This southward shift of the bifurcation latitude is associated with changes in the wind stress curl over the tropical Pacific Ocean between 10 degrees N and 20 degrees N, leading to the strengthening of the Kuroshio at its origin. The conclusion is further supported by simulations of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models. It is demonstrated that the long-term change of the seasonal south-north migration of the bifurcation is modulated by the southward shift of the mean position. Over the past 6 decades, the phase speed of first-mode baroclinic Rossby waves (C-R) at the latitude of the bifurcation increases from 13 cm s(-1) in 1950 to 18 cm s(-1) in 2005, and the corresponding seasonal amplitude increases (decreases) before (after) the mid-1980s. Using a linear vorticity model, it is found that the long-term modulation of the NBL seasonal migration amplitude is associated with the increase of C-R in responses to the southward shift of the mean NBL. It is expected that the seasonal amplitude will decrease moderately in the following decades if the ocean continues warming.