Vulnerability and risk analysis of monuments in Malaga city's historical centre (Southern Spain)

A vulnerability analysis of some historical and monumental buildings in the city of Malaga is presented in this paper. More than twenty of these monuments were severely damaged or completely destroyed due to the large earthquake ( = VIII-IX) occurred in the Malaga region in October 1680. The vulnerability index methodology has been used in this paper. This technique is based on statistical data from seismic damage caused to Italian monuments for the past 30 years. For each building, vulnerability curves have been obtained and damage grades have been estimated. A comparison has been carried out between the expected damage grades and the damage observed from past earthquakes, in order to check the feasibility of applying this methodology to Spanish monuments. This comparison has been possible due to the fact that detailed seismic damage information exists for monuments in the city of Malaga that still exist today, which is a very uncommon case in Spain. Results show a good consistency between expected and observed damage, especially for the churches type. Two seismic scenarios have been proposed for the city centre, one deterministic and one probabilistic, where 54 historical and modern buildings have been analyzed. Both scenarios show worrying results, especially for the types of churches, chapels and towers, where expected high probabilities of suffering very heavy damage or even collapse have been obtained. It is highly recommended to take the necessary measures, in the hope of trying to avoid the possible damage that can be expected from future earthquakes.