Beach Erosion Prediction for the Black Sea Coast due to Sea Level Rise

The objective of the present contribution is to assess, at the basin-scale, the range of sea level rise-driven retreat of beaches of the Black Sea. Web-GIS tools have been used to build a database of the spatial characteristics of all Black Sea beaches and some of their attributes. This information has been used in conjunction with an ensemble of 6 coastal morphodynamic models to assess the range of reduction of beach width under various rates of sea level rise. The analysis shows that sea level rise may have highly significant impacts on the beaches in the Black Sea region. The study suggests that, based on the low IPCC estimate of 0.22 m sea level rise by 2100, up to similar to 70% of the beaches may lose as much as 20% of their maximum width, similar to 22% of beaches may lose about 50% and similar to 3.5% of Black Sea beaches may be entirely lost. Based on the high IPCC estimate of 0.50 m sea level rise by 2100, the results suggest a dramatic impact on Black Sea beaches, as up to similar to 17 % of the Black Sea beaches may be entirely lost, with up to similar to 52% losing more than 50% of their maximum width and over 90% of beaches losing more than 20%. The beach erosion risk may, however, be even larger, as the estimations do not take into account other drivers of beach erosion, such as the significant reduction of the riverine sediment supply over the recent decades.