Competition between Export Cities in China: Evolution and Influencing Factors

Based on the Export Similarity Index (ESI), this study examines the export competition pattern among Chinese cities in the global market from 2000 to 2017, analyzing the mechanism of competition using a panel Granger causality test and a gravity model. The study reports several findings, as follows: (1) The competition pattern among Chinese cities first increased and then decreased, and the ESI between most cities was low. (2) More provincial capitals in the central and western regions converged with the developed eastern regions in their export structures, and cities in the regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta competed differently. (3) Using all cities in the sample, the results show a bidirectional causal relationship between a city's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the average export competitive pressure from other cities. However, results for the provincial capitals and three urban agglomerations indicated that GDP intensifies competition among cities. (4) The gravity model's regression results show that the larger the economic size and the smaller the distance between cities, the more obvious the competition between them. This study provides a new direction for the study of export trade from the perspective of urban scale.