Risk Assessment of Express Delivery Service Failures in China: An Improved Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Approach

With the rapid growth of express delivery industry, service failure has become an increasingly pressing issue. However, there is a lack of research on express service failure risk assessment within the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) framework. To address the research gap, we propose an improved FMEA approach based on integrating the uncertainty reasoning cloud model and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The cloud model describing randomness and fuzziness in uncertainty environment is adopted to achieve the transformation between the qualitative semantic evaluation of occurrence (O), severity (S), and detection (D) risk factors of FMEA and the quantitative instantiation and set up the comprehensive cloud of risk assessment matrix for express delivery service failure (EDSF). The TOPSIS method calculates and ranks the relative closeness coefficients of EDSF mode. Finally, the rationality and applicability of the proposed method are demonstrated by an empirical study for the express delivery service in China. It is found that among 18 express delivery service failure modes, six service failure modes with high risk are mainly located in the processing and delivery stages, while six service failures with the relatively low risk are involved in the picking-up and transportation stages. This study provides insight on how to explore the risk evaluation of express delivery service failure, and it helps express delivery firms to identify the key service failure points, develop the corresponding service remedy measures, reduce the loss from service failures, and improve the service quality.