Research on the Forecasting Model of the Main Cargo Throughput of Dalian Port

被引：0

作者：

Sun Shuang ^{[1
]}

Chen Yan ^{[1
]}

Li Tao-Ying ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Dalian Maritime Univ, Transportat Management Coll, Dalian, Peoples R China

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF 2015 6TH IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOFTWARE ENGINEERING AND SERVICE SCIENCE | 2015年

关键词：

Port; Main cargo throughput; forecasting method; Combination forecasting;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TP31 [计算机软件];

学科分类号：

081202 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

Reasonable forecast of the main cargo throughput has decisive significance for ports to improve their competitiveness and economic benefit. The traditional forecasting methods and models have been difficult to forecast the current needs. In this paper, in order to enhance accuracy of the main cargo throughput, three methods, which are Pearl curve model, moving average method and three exponential smoothing method of time series are used. Based on these three methods, a combined forecasting method is done, and it integrates the advantages of the former three methods, overcomes the uncertainty of a single forecasting method, improves the prediction results and better fits Dalian Port's practical prediction.

引用

页码：902 / 906

页数：5