What do test scores really capture? Evidence from a large-scale student assessment in Mexico

This paper studies the relationship between test scores and cognitive skills using two longitudinal data sets that track student performance in a national standardized exam in grades 6, 9, and 12 and post-secondary school outcomes in Mexico. Exploiting a large sample of twins to control for all between-family differences in school, household, and neighborhood inputs, we find that primary school test scores are a strong predictor of secondary education outcomes. Using a data set that links results in the national standardized test to later outcomes, we find that secondary school test scores predict university enroll -ment and hourly wages. These results indicate that, despite their limitations, large-scale student assess-ments can capture the skills they are meant to measure and can therefore be used to monitor student learning in developing countries. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.