Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

被引:42
作者
Hong, Sungjun [1 ,2 ]
Chung, Yanghon [1 ]
Woo, Chungwon [1 ]
机构
[1] Korea Adv Inst Sci & Technol, Dept Business & Technol Management, Taejon, South Korea
[2] Korea Inst Energy Res, Energy R&D Strategy & Policy Res Div, Taejon, South Korea
关键词
Photovoltaic power generation; Learning curve; Cost analysis; RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT; RENEWABLE ENERGY; TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE; EXPERIENCE CURVES; TECHNICAL CHANGE; COST; INNOVATION; MODELS; POLICY; METHODOLOGY;
D O I
10.1016/j.energy.2014.10.050
中图分类号
O414.1 [热力学];
学科分类号
摘要
South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established 'Low Carbon Green Growth' as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R&D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R&D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R&D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R&D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R&D investment was around 20%. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:80 / 89
页数:10
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