Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden: Australia, 2019-2030

被引:92
作者
Adams, Leon A. [1 ]
Roberts, Stuart K. [2 ]
Strasser, Simone, I [5 ]
Mahady, Suzanne E. [3 ,4 ]
Powell, Elizabeth [7 ]
Estes, Chris [8 ]
Razavi, Homie [8 ]
George, Jacob [6 ]
机构
[1] Univ Western Australia, Med Sch, Perth, WA, Australia
[2] The Alfred, Dept Gastroenterol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
[3] Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
[4] Royal Melbourne Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
[5] Royal Prince Alfred Hosp, AW Morrow Gastroenterol & Liver Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia
[6] Univ Sydney, Sch Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia
[7] Princess Alexandra Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
[8] Ctr Dis Anal, Lafayette, CO USA
关键词
Fatty liver; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Liver cirrhosis; Liver neoplasms; Metabolic syndrome; Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease; C VIRUS-INFECTION; HEPATOCELLULAR-CARCINOMA; FIBROSIS STAGE; UNITED-STATES; STEATOHEPATITIS; POPULATION; NAFLD; RISK; PREVALENCE; MORTALITY;
D O I
10.1111/jgh.15009
中图分类号
R57 [消化系及腹部疾病];
学科分类号
摘要
Background and Aim Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for a large and growing proportion of liver disease burden globally. The burden of NAFLD/NASH manifests in increasing levels of advanced liver disease and primary liver cancer in Australia. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD burden in Australia through 2030. Methods A model was used to estimate fibrosis progression, primary liver cancer, and liver deaths among the Australian NAFLD population, with changes in incident NAFLD cases based on long-term trends for changes in the prevalence of obesity. Published estimates and surveillance data were applied to build and validate the model projections, including surveillance data for the incidence of liver cancer. Results Prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 25% from the current burden (5 551 000 [4 748 000-6 306 000] cases in 2019) to 7 024 000 [5 838 000-7 886 000] cases in 2030. The projected increase in the number of NASH cases (40%) was greater than that of NAFLD cases. Incident cases of advanced liver disease are projected to increase up to 85% by 2030, and incident NAFLD liver deaths are estimated to increase 85% from 1900 (1100-3300) deaths in 2019 to 3500 (2100-6100) deaths in 2030. Conclusions Restraining growth of the obese and diabetic populations, along with potential therapeutic options, will be essential for mitigating disease burden.
引用
收藏
页码:1628 / 1635
页数:8
相关论文
共 50 条
[1]   The NAFLD fibrosis score: A noninvasive system that identifies liver fibrosis in patients with NAFLD [J].
Angulo, Paul ;
Hui, Jason M. ;
Marchesini, Giulio ;
Bugianesi, Ellisabetta ;
George, Jacob ;
Farrell, Geoffrey C. ;
Enders, Felicity ;
Saksena, Sushma ;
Burt, Alastair D. ;
Bida, John P. ;
Lindor, Keith ;
Sanderson, Schuyler O. ;
Lenzi, Marco ;
Adams, Leon A. ;
Kench, James ;
Therneau, Terry M. ;
Day, Christopher P. .
HEPATOLOGY, 2007, 45 (04) :846-854
[2]  
[Anonymous], HEPATOLOGY
[3]  
[Anonymous], 2019, 3105.0.65.001 Australian Historical Population Statistics
[4]  
[Anonymous], CANC COMP INF TRENDS
[5]  
[Anonymous], LANCET, DOI [10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32129-3, 10.1016/S0140-6736, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736]
[6]  
Australia and New Zealand Organ Donation (ANZOD) Registry, 2018, ANN REP AUSTR NZ ORG
[7]  
Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2019, 3222 0 POP PROJ AUST
[8]  
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, DIAB SNAPSH 2018
[9]  
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, OV OB 2018
[10]   Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015: a modelling study [J].
Blach, Sarah ;
Zeuzem, Stefan ;
Manns, Michael ;
Altraif, Ibrahim ;
Duberg, Ann-Sofi ;
Muljono, David H. ;
Waked, Imam ;
Alavian, Seyed M. ;
Lee, Mei-Hsuan ;
Negro, Francesco ;
Abaalkhail, Faisal ;
Abdou, Ahmed ;
Abdulla, Maheeba ;
Abou Rached, Antoine ;
Aho, Inka ;
Akarca, Ulus ;
Al Ghazzawi, Imad ;
Al Kaabi, Saad ;
Al Lawati, Faryal ;
Al Namaani, Khalid ;
Al Serkal, Youssif ;
Al-Busafi, Said A. ;
Al-Dabal, Layla ;
Aleman, Soo ;
Alghamdi, Abdullah S. ;
Aljumah, Abdulrahman A. ;
Al-Romaihi, Hamad E. ;
Andersson, Monique I. ;
Arendt, Vic ;
Arkkila, Perttu ;
Assiri, Abdullah M. ;
Baatarkhuu, Oidov ;
Bane, Abate ;
Ben-Ari, Ziv ;
Bergin, Colm ;
Bessone, Fernando ;
Bihl, Florian ;
Bizri, Abdul R. ;
Blachier, Martin ;
Blasco, Antonio J. ;
Mello, Carlos E. Brandao ;
Bruggmann, Philip ;
Brunton, Cheryl R. ;
Calinas, Filipe ;
Chan, Henry L. Y. ;
Chaudhry, Asad ;
Cheinquer, Hugo ;
Chen, Chien-Jen ;
Chien, Rong-Nan ;
Choi, Moon Seok .
LANCET GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY, 2017, 2 (03) :161-176