Climate change impacts on Protea species: PDEAR model predictions

被引:0
作者
Guo, Danni [1 ]
Guo, Renkuan
Midgley, Guy F. [1 ]
Rebelo, A. G. [1 ]
机构
[1] S African Natl Biodivers Inst, Kirstenbosch Res Ctr, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa
来源
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 8TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON SPATIAL ACCURACY ASSESSMENT IN NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, VOL I: SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY | 2008年
关键词
random fuzzy variable; bivariate partial differential equation associated regression model; Protea; South Africa; climate change; Cape Floristic Region;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
TP [自动化技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号
0812 ;
摘要
One of the major concerns today is global warming and climate change impacts, and how they are changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. For example, Proteas species in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, are very sensitive to climate change. In this paper, we first arguing and the random fuzzy error structure for spatial modelling accuracy and then we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from I to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We develop a bivariate partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. Our investigation shows that the global climate change impacts on distributional patterns of the endangered Protea species are significant.
引用
收藏
页码:287 / 293
页数:7
相关论文
共 12 条
[1]  
GUO D, 2008, P GIS RES UK 16 ANN, P205
[2]  
Guo R., 2008, J UNCERTAIN SYSTEMS, V2, P32
[3]  
GUO R, 2008, SMC 2008 OC IN PRESS, P12
[4]   Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: Precipitation downscaling over South Africa [J].
Hewitson, B. C. ;
Crane, R. G. .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2006, 26 (10) :1315-1337
[5]  
Liu B., 2004, Uncertainty Theory
[6]  
LIU B D, 2015, Uncertainty theory, V4th, DOI DOI 10.1007/978-3-540-73165-8
[7]   Migration rate limitations on climate change-induced range shifts in Cape Proteaceae [J].
Midgley, G. F. ;
Hughes, G. O. ;
Thuiller, W. ;
Rebelo, A. G. .
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, 2006, 12 (05) :555-562
[8]   A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas [J].
New, M ;
Lister, D ;
Hulme, M ;
Makin, I .
CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2002, 21 (01) :1-25
[9]  
Rebelo T, 2001, Proteas: a field guide to the Proteas of Southern Africa, V2nd edn
[10]  
TADROSS M, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32