Is probability the only coherent approach to uncertainty?

被引:33
作者
Colyvan, Mark [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Sydney, Dept Philosophy, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
关键词
Cox's theorem; non-classical logic; probability; uncertainty; vagueness;
D O I
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01058.x
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
In this article, I discuss an argument that purports to prove that probability theory is the only sensible means of dealing with uncertainty. I show that this argument can succeed only if some rather controversial assumptions about the nature of uncertainty are accepted. I discuss these assumptions and provide reasons for rejecting them. I also present examples of what I take to be non-probabilistic uncertainty.
引用
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页码:645 / 652
页数:8
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