Relationship between the zonal displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high and the dominant modes of low-tropospheric circulation in summer

The zonal displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high remarkably influences the climate anomalies in China. In this paper, zonal index of the subtropical high is defined by modifying previous indices, and is used to investigate the relationship between the zonal displacement of the subtropical high and the dominant modes of 850-hPa circulations. It is found that the zonal displacement of the subtropical high is significantly correlated with the first two leading modes of circulations. In particular, the correlation coefficient between the index and the time series associated with the second mode is as high as 0.78 in 1958-2003 (46 years). Since the second mode is not associated with significant anomalies of sea surface temperatures, the above results imply the difficulty in seasonal forecasting of the zonal displacement of the subtropical high. In addition, the interannual variability in the zonal displacement of the subtropical high has been considerably enhanced since 1978, due to the effects of both dominant modes, especially the second mode. This is likely to account for the frequent occurrence of anomalous climate in China during the recent two decades. (c) 2007 National Natural Science Foundation of China and Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier Limited and Science in China Press. All rights reserved.