Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score

被引：33

作者：

Bravo, Laura

Nepogodiev, Dmitri

Glasbey, James C.

Li, Elizabeth

Simoes, Joana F. F.

Kamarajah, Sivesh K.

Picciochi, Maria

Abbott, Tom E. F.

Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O.

Arnaud, Alexis P.

Agarwal, Arnav

Brar, Amanpreet

Elhadi, Muhammed

Mazingi, Dennis

Cardoso, Victor Roth

Lawday, Samuel

Sayyed, Raza

Omar, Omar M.

Ramos de la Madina, Antonio

Slater, Luke

Venn, Mary

Gkoutos, Georgios

Bhangu, Aneel

Karwath, Andreas

Siaw-Acheampong, Kwabena

Argus, Leah

Chaudhry, Daoud

Dawson, Brett E.

Gujjuri, Rohan R.

Jones, Conor S.

Khatri, Chetan

Keatley, James M.

Mann, Harvinder

Marson, Ella J.

Mclean, Kenneth A.

Taylor, Elliott H.

Tiwari, Abhinav

Trout, Isobel M.

Venn, Mary L.

Wilkin, Richard J. W.

Dajti, Irida

Gjata, Arben

Boccalatte, Luis

Marta Modolo, Maria

Cox, Daniel

Pockney, Peter

Townend, Philip

Aigner, Felix

Kronberger, Irmgard

Hossain, Kamral

机构：

[1] Univ Hosp Ctr Nene Tereza, Tirana, Albania

[2] Hosp Velez Sarsfield, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina

[3] Hosp Italiano Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina

[4] Royal Adelaide Hosp, Adelaide, SA, Australia

[5] Royal Brisbane & Womens Hosp, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[6] Gosford Hosp, Gosford, Australia

[7] Monash Childrens Hosp, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[8] Austin Hosp, Heidelberg, Vic, Australia

[9] John Hunter Hosp, Newcastle, NSW, Australia

[10] Wollongong Publ Hosp, Wollongong, NSW, Australia

[11] Krankenhaus Barmherzigen Bruder Graz, Graz, Austria

[12] Med Univ Graz, Graz, Austria

[13] Med Univ Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

[14] Paracelsus Med Univ, Salzburg, Austria

[15] Univ Klinikum Tulln, Tulln, Austria

[16] Med Univ Vienna, Vienna, Austria

[17] Dhaka Shishu Children Hosp, Dhaka, Bangladesh

[18] Univ Hosp Antwerp UZA, Edegem, Belgium

[19] Imelda Hosp, Bonheiden, Belgium

[20] Europe Hosp, Etterbeek, Belgium

[21] Ghent Univ Hosp, Ghent, Belgium

[22] AZ Groeninge, Kortrijk, Belgium

[23] UZ Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

[24] Heilig Hart Ziekenhuis Lier, Lier, Belgium

[25] AZ Delta, Roeselare, Belgium

[26] Fundacao Ctr Med Campinas, Campinas, Brazil

[27] Hosp Santa Casa Misericardia Maceio, Maceio, Brazil

[28] Hosp Univ Rio Antonio Pedro, Niteroi, RJ, Brazil

[29] Irmandade Santa Casa Misericardia Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

[30] Pedro Ernesto Univ Hosp, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[31] Hosp Nove De Julho, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[32] Hosp Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[33] Inst Canc Estado Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[34] Notre Dame Intermed Hosp Salvalus, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[35] AC Camargo Canc Ctr, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[36] Inst Canc Dr Arnaldo Vieira de Carvalho, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[37] Hosp Geral Pirajussara, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[38] Univ Hosp Eurohosp, Plovdiv, Bulgaria

[39] Univ Alberta Hosp, Edmonton, AB, Canada

[40] London Hlth Sci Ctr, London, ON, Canada

[41] St Josephs Hlth Care London, London, ON, Canada

[42] Ctr Hosp Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[43] Jewish Gen Hosp, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[44] Hop Maison Neuve Rosemont, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[45] McMaster Childrens Hosp, Hamilton, ON, Canada

[46] Hop Sacre Coeur Montreal, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[47] Ctr Hosp Univ St Justine, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[48] St Marys Hosp, Kitchener, ON, Canada

[49] McGill Univ, Ctr Hlth, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[50] Ottawa Hosp, Ottawa, ON, Canada

来源：

BJS-BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY | 2021年 / 108卷 / 11期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会; 英国科研创新办公室; 英国惠康基金;

关键词：

COVID-19;

D O I：

10.1093/bjs/znab183

中图分类号：

R61 [外科手术学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.

引用

页码：1274 / 1292

页数：19

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