Testing the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis under long-range dependence

被引:23
作者
Perez-Rodriguez, Jorge V. [1 ]
Rachinger, Heiko [2 ]
Santana-Gallego, Maria [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Las Palmas Gran Canaria, Dept Quantitat Methods, Las Palmas Gran Canaria, Spain
[2] Univ Balearic Isl, Dept Appl Econ, Palma De Mallorca, Spain
关键词
Fractional integration; narrow-band least squares (NBLS) and fully modified NBLS (FMNBLS) cointegration estimators; fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR); NUMERICAL DISTRIBUTION-FUNCTIONS; BAND LEAST-SQUARES; UNIT-ROOT; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; TIME-SERIES; COINTEGRATING RANK; MEMORY; REPRESENTATION; PERSISTENCE; CRISIS;
D O I
10.1080/13683500.2020.1744537
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Traditionally, the relationship between tourism and economic growth has been studied using methods based on stationary or nonstationary models. In this paper, we explore the validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis, applying fractional cointegration techniques and comparing the results with those obtained in previous studies. To do this, we study the long-run relationship between GDP and tourism series, using a two-step strategy. First, we apply fractional cointegration methods and then we test the null hypothesis of no cointegration against alternatives which are fractionally cointegrated. For the empirical analysis, we use seasonally adjusted quarterly data for GDP and tourist arrivals for seven European countries from 1990 to 2018. In the empirical exercise, evidence of cointegration is found only in very restricted cases. Therefore, the validity of the TLGH is less clear-cut when this methodology is applied.
引用
收藏
页码:768 / 793
页数:26
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