First-Trimester Preterm Preeclampsia Screening in Nulliparous Women: The Great Obstetrical Syndrome (GOS) Study

Objectives: To estimate the ability of a combination of first-trimester markers to predict preterm preeclampsia in nulliparous women. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of nulliparous women with singleton gestations, recruited between 11(0) and 13(6) weeks gestation. Data on the following were collected: maternal age; ethnicity; chronic diseases; use of fertility treatment; body mass index; mean arterial blood pressure (MAP); serum levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (beta-hCG); and mean uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI). We constructed a proportional hazard model for the prediction of preterm preeclampsia selected based on the Akaike information criterion. A receiver operating characteristic curve was created with the predicted risk from the final model. Our primary outcome was preterm preeclampsia and our secondary outcome was a composite of preeclampsia, small for gestational age, intrauterine death, and preterm birth. Results: Among 4659 nulliparous women with singleton gestations, our final model included 4 variables: MAP MoM, log(10)PlGF MoM, log(10)AFP MoM and log(10)UtA-PI MoM. We obtained an area under the curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.75-0.93) with a detection rate of preterm preeclampsia of 55% (95% CI 37%-73%) and a false-positive rate of 10%. Using a risk cut-off with a false-positive rate of 10%, the positive predictive value for our composite outcome was 33% (95% CI 29%-37%). Conclusions: The combination of MAP, maternal serum PlGF and AFP, and UtA-PI are useful to identify nulliparous women at high risk of preterm preeclampsia but also at high risk of other great obstetrical syndromes.