Decomposition Analysis of the Aggregate Carbon Intensity (ACI) of the Power Sector in Colombia-A Multi-Temporal Analysis

This paper presents the application of the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Decomposition Analysis (LMDI) to the aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) of the power sector in Colombia in the period 1990-2020, with the aim of identifying the main drivers influencing the ACI change. The analysis performed identifies the main drivers among: carbon intensity, generation efficiency, and contribution of fossil generation at the specific and total level of electricity production. The analysis is performed at the aggregate and disaggregated level of fossil fuels. Due to the highly variable behavior of the ACI, a multi-temporal decomposition is performed in the eight presidential administrations in the period of analysis. For each period, the main drivers are identified and the energy policy implications and their effects on the operation and management of the power sector are analyzed. The results show that the main driver is the fossil share of total energy production. Important effects on thermal generation efficiency and fossil energy mix were also identified in some analysis periods. The need for effective long-term policies and regulation in relation to the factors influencing the ACI was identified. It is recommended to accelerate the diversification of the energy mix of the power sector and the permanent monitoring of the behavior of the drivers.