Climate change and major crop production: evidence from Pakistan

Climatic changes are posing serious threats to crop production and food insecurity across the globe. This study explores the dynamic relationship between changing annual temperature and production of major crops such as wheat, rice, bajra, jowar, maize, barley, gram, sugar cane, mastered oil, and cotton in Pakistan from 2000 to 2019 through an eclectic production model. The estimated result of panel econometric analysis revealed a significant negative effect of rising temperature on selected crop production in the long run with an insignificant impact in the short run. Among other explanatory variables, the area under cultivation and fertilizer input have significant positive effects in both the long run and the short run. Improved quality seeds revealed insignificant effects and urging authorities to enhance quality research to develop climate change resilient crops. This study urges Pakistan to improve agriculture technology along with adopting other greenhouse gas mitigation, such as forestation and clean energy, and water conservation policies.