Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon

被引：63

作者：

Arias, Mauricio E. ^{[1
,2
]}

Farinosi, Fabio ^{[1
,3
,4
]}

Lee, Eunjee ^{[1
,5
]}

Livino, Angela ^{[1
,6
]}

Briscoe, John ^{[1
]}

Moorcroft, Paul R. ^{[1
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard Univ, Kennedy Sch Govt, Sustainabil Sci Program, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[2] Univ S Florida, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Tampa, FL 33620 USA

[3] Ca Foscari Univ Venice, Venice, Italy

[4] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy

[5] NASA, Goddard Earth Sci Technol & Res & Global Modeling, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA

[6] Energy Res Off, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[7] Harvard Univ, Dept Organism & Evolutionary Biol, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

来源：

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY | 2020年 / 3卷 / 06期

关键词：

ECOSYSTEM DEMOGRAPHY MODEL; TAPAJOS RIVER-BASIN; LAND-USE; FUTURE DEFORESTATION; MEKONG RIVER; BIODIVERSITY; DAMS; PROJECTIONS; DYNAMICS; DROUGHT;

D O I：

10.1038/s41893-020-0492-y

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The Amazon Basin is Brazil's next frontier for hydropower, but alterations to the water cycle from climate change and deforestation could affect river flows fuelling electricity generation. This research investigated the effects of global and regional changes to the largest network of planned and existing dams within a single basin in the Amazon (the Tapaj?s River), which altogether accounts for nearly 50% of the inventoried potential expansion in Brazil. Future hydrological conditions could delay the period of maximum daily generation by 22-29 d, worsening the mismatch between seasonal electricity supply and peak demand. Overall, climate change could decrease dry season hydropower potential by 430-312 GWh per month (-7.4 to -5.4%), while combined effects of deforestation could increase interannual variability from 548 to 713-926 GWh per month (+50% to +69%). Incorporating future change and coordinating dam operations should be a premise in energy planning that could help develop more resilient energy portfolios. Hydropower is important in Brazil, but climate change and deforestation are changing river flows. This study finds that future conditions will worsen a mismatch between seasonal electricity supply and peak demand.

引用

页码：430 / 436

页数：7

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