Do Conditional Cash Transfers for Schooling Generate Lasting Benefits? A Five-Year Followup of PROGRESA/Oportunidades

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs link public transfers to human capital investment in hopes of alleviating current poverty and reducing its intergenerational transmission. However, little is known about their long-term impacts. This paper evaluates longer-run impacts on schooling and work of the best-known CCT program, Mexico's PROGRESA/Oportunidades, using experimental and nonexperimental estimators based on groups with different program exposure. The results show positive impacts on schooling, reductions in work for younger youth (consistent with postponing labor force entry), increases in work for older girls, and shifts from agricultural to nonagricultural employment. The evidence suggests schooling effects are robust with time.