The influence of agricultural industrial policy on non-grain production of cultivated land: A case study of the "one village, one product" strategy implemented in Guanzhong Plain of China

As a populous country, China has always attached importance to the protection of cultivated land and food security. However, in the process of promoting rural development, agricultural industrial policies introduced by local governments may affect the realization of food security. Although there are many studies paying attention to the influence of agricultural industrial policy on food security, quantitative analyses are lacking. This paper takes the "one village, one product" strategy (OVOP) implemented in the Guanzhong Plain of China as an example. Through remote sensing and GIS technology, the ranges of the non-grain production of cultivated land (NGPOCL) from 2000 to 2018 were extracted for the study area. The regression discontinuity design was used to analyze the impact of the OVOP on the NGPOCL increase using the county as the basic sample. On these bases, food security was analyzed combined with the established evaluation indicators. The results show that 35 of the 47 counties in the Guanzhong Plain owned a significant jump in the NGPOCL area after the implementation of the OVOP, which indicates that the OVOP is an important reason for the NGPOCL expansion; meanwhile, the pressure index of cultivated land increased by 29.53%, which means the OVOP implementation has threatened food security seriously. This study can offer the authorities a clear truth and severity of the negative impacts of industrial policies, and warn them to be more cautious in implementing industrial policies.