Source impact and contribution analysis of ambient ozone using multi-modeling approaches over the Pearl River Delta region, China

Quantification of source impacts and contributions is a key element for the design of effective air pollution control policies. In this study, O-3 source impacts and contributions were comprehensively assessed over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China using brute-force method (BFM), response surface modeling with BFM (RSM-BFM) and differential method (RSM-DM) respectively, high-order decoupled direct method (HDDM), and ozone source apportionment technology (OSAT). The multi-modeling comparison results indicated that under typical nonlinear atmospheric conditions during the O-3 formation, BFM, RSM-BFM, and HDDM seemed to be appropriate for assessing the impact of single source emissions; however, the results of HDDM could deviate from those of BFM when the emission reduction ratio was higher than 50 %. Under multi-source control scenarios, the results of source contribution analyses obtained from RSM-DM and OSAT were reasonably well, but the performance of OSAT was limited by its capability in representing the nonlinearity of O-3 response to emission reductions of its precursors, particularly NOx. The results of this pilot study in the PRD showed that the RSM-DM appeared to replicate the nonlinearity of O-3 chemistry reasonably well (e.g., O-3 disbenefits due to local NOx emission reductions in Guangzhou city). Based on the source contribution results, on-road mobile (including both NO(x )and VOC emissions) and industrial process (mainly VOC emissions) sources were identified as two major contribution sectors by both RSM-DM and OSAT, contributing an average of 31.5 % and 11.4 % (estimated by RSM-DM) and 29.2 % and 13.0 % (estimated by OSAT) respectively to O-3 formation in 9 cities of the PRD. Therefore, the reinforced emission reductions on NOx and VOC from on-road mobile and industrial process sources in the central cities (i.e., Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Shenzhen, and Zhongshan) were suggested to effectively mitigate the ambient O-3 levels in the PRD.