USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO IMPROVE REAL-TIME DECISION-MAKING FOR HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER

被引:266
作者
McGovern, Amy [1 ]
Elmore, Kimberly L. [2 ,3 ]
Gagne, David John, II [4 ]
Haupt, Sue Ellen [4 ]
Karstens, Christopher D. [2 ,6 ]
Lagerquist, Ryan [5 ]
Smith, Travis [2 ,3 ]
Williams, John K. [4 ,7 ]
机构
[1] Univ Oklahoma, Sch Comp Sci, Norman, OK 73019 USA
[2] Univ Oklahoma, Cooperat Inst Mesoscale Meteorol Studies, Norman, OK 73019 USA
[3] Natl Severe Storms Lab, Norman, OK 73069 USA
[4] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[5] Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA
[6] NOAA, Natl Weather Serv, Storm Predict Ctr, Norman, OK USA
[7] Weather Co, IBM Business, Andover, MA USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
NEURAL-NETWORK; PRECIPITATION-TYPE; QUALITY-CONTROL; CLASSIFICATION; MODEL; PREDICTION; HAIL; ALGORITHM; ENSEMBLE; PROBABILITY;
D O I
10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0123.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
High-impact weather events, such as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes, cause significant disruptions to infrastructure, property loss, and even fatalities. High-impact events can also positively impact society, such as the impact on savings through renewable energy. Prediction of these events has improved substantially with greater observational capabilities, increased computing power, and better model physics, but there is still significant room for improvement. Artificial intelligence (AI) and data science technologies, specifically machine learning and data mining, bridge the gap between numerical model prediction and real-time guidance by improving accuracy. AI techniques also extract otherwise unavailable information from forecast models by fusing model output with observations to provide additional decision support for forecasters and users. In this work, we demonstrate that applying AI techniques along with a physical understanding of the environment can significantly improve the prediction skill for multiple types of high-impact weather. The AI approach is also a contribution to the growing field of computational sustainability. The authors specifically discuss the prediction of storm duration, severe wind, severe hail, precipitation classification, forecasting for renewable energy, and aviation turbulence. They also discuss how AI techniques can process big data, provide insights into high-impact weather phenomena, and improve our understanding of high-impact weather.
引用
收藏
页码:2073 / 2090
页数:18
相关论文
共 126 条
[1]   Forecasting Hail Using a One-Dimensional Hail Growth Model within WRF [J].
Adams-Selin, Rebecca D. ;
Ziegler, Conrad L. .
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2016, 144 (12) :4919-4939
[2]   Support vector machines for spatiotemporal tornado prediction [J].
Adrianto, Indra ;
Trafalis, Theodore B. ;
Lakshmanan, Valliappa .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GENERAL SYSTEMS, 2009, 38 (07) :759-776
[3]   Probabilistic Forecasts of Mesoscale Convective System Initiation Using the Random Forest Data Mining Technique [J].
Ahijevych, David ;
Pinto, James O. ;
Williams, John K. ;
Steiner, Matthias .
WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 2016, 31 (02) :581-599
[4]   Knowledge Is Power [J].
Ahlstrom, Mark ;
Bartlett, Drake ;
Collier, Craig ;
Duchesne, Jacques ;
Edelson, David ;
Gesino, Alejandro ;
Keyser, Marc ;
Maggio, David ;
Milligan, Michael ;
Mohrlen, Corinna ;
O'Sullivan, Jonathan ;
Sharp, Justin ;
Storck, Pascal ;
de la Torre Rodriguez, Miguel .
IEEE POWER & ENERGY MAGAZINE, 2013, 11 (06) :45-52
[5]   An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast [J].
Alessandrini, S. ;
Delle Monache, L. ;
Sperati, S. ;
Cervone, G. .
APPLIED ENERGY, 2015, 157 :95-110
[6]   Source characterization with a genetic algorithm-coupled dispersion-backward model incorporating SCIPUFF [J].
Allen, Christopher T. ;
Haupt, Sue Ellen ;
Young, George S. .
JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 2007, 46 (03) :273-287
[7]   A convective/stratiform precipitation classification algorithm for volume scanning weather radar observations [J].
Anagnostou, EN .
METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, 2004, 11 (04) :291-300
[8]  
[Anonymous], 2016, STRAT 2016 2025 STRE
[9]  
[Anonymous], 1968, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
[10]  
[Anonymous], 2016, 14 C ART COMP INT IT