Evaluation of a simple model to describe carbon accumulation in a Brown Chernozem under varying fallow frequency

Soil organic C (SOC) is readily influenced by crop management practices, such as summerfallowing. On the Canadian prairies, the area summerfallowed has decreased significantly in recent years. Our objectives were to determine the influence of fallow frequency on the rate of change in SOC in an Orthic Brown Chernozem, and to test the effectiveness of an empirical equation developed in an earlier study for estimating SOC changes in these rotations over 33-yr period. The rotations, which were initiated in 1967, all received adequate N and P fertilizers. They were (i) fallow-spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) (F-W), F-W-W, F-W-W-W-W-W and W-lentil (Lens culinaris L.) (W-Lent). Soil organic C was measured in the 0- to 15-cm. and 15- to 30-cm depths in 1976, 1981, 1984, 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1999. No measurements of SOC were made in 1967; we estimated SOC starting values to be 30.5 Mg ha(-1) in the 0- to 15-cm depth. In the period 1967 to 1990, when growing season precipitation was near normal for this semiarid region, SOC in the four rotations approached a steady state. However, a decade of much more favourable growing season precipitation in the 1990s increased C inputs, which resulted in a marked increase in SOC in the treatments. The empirical equation suggests, and the F-W and W-Lent rotations appear to confirm, that these rotations are approaching a new steady state at a higher level of SOC, reflecting the decade of favourable precipitation. Measured SOC levels were quite variable, emphasizing the difficulty of relying on measurements made over short time frames (e.g., 5-6yr) when quantifying SOC changes. The equation effectively simulated the trends in SOC changes in all rotations, but consistently underestimated SOC levels in the W-Lent rotation by about 2 Mg ha(-1). Estimates of difference in SOC between treatments were generally similar whether expressed on a mass/fixed depth or a mass/equivalent depth basis. Based on the estimates derived by the empirical equation, we estimated rates of SOC sequestration during the 1967-1990 period to be 0.03 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) for F-W, 0.10 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) for F-W-W, and 0.15 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) for W-Lent. If we include the decade of more favourable precipitation (1967-1999), the rates were between 0.05 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) for F-W and 0.20 Mg ha(-1) yr(-1) for W-Lent. These values are much higher than those estimated by others using the CENTURY model. We concluded that (i) simple models, such as that used in this study, are very useful for estimating management effects on SOC changes, and (ii) we must be cautious in extrapolating C sequestration estimates based on data from short-term experiments because future weather conditions are not easily predicted and weather can have an important impact on C sequestration.