What price precaution? European harmonisation of aflatoxin regulations and African groundnut exports

The effects of varying regulatory standards on trade in agricultural products are at the forefront of policy debate. This paper employs a gravity model to estimate the impact of changes in aflatoxin standards on trade flows of groundnut products using trade data for Europe and Africa during 1989-1998. Results suggest that a 10 per cent tighter aflatoxin standard in European countries will reduce edible groundnut imports by 11 per cent. A new European Union regulation on aflatoxins will result in a trade flow that is 63 per cent lower than when the Codex Alimentarius international standards are followed.