Early Changes in Kidney Function Predict Long-Term Chronic Kidney Disease and Mortality in Patients After Liver Transplantation

Background. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a well-known complication after liver transplantation (LT) and is associated with increased mortality. The purpose of this study was to determine risk factors of advanced CKD and mortality after LT. Methods. Four hundred forty-five adult patients underwent LT between June 1990 and September 2007 and survived more than 1 month. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed for time to CKD stage 4 (glomerular filtration rate [GFR] <= 30 mL/min), time to chronic dialysis, and all-cause mortality. Several patient and disease characteristics were used as independent pre- and posttransplant variables. We specifically analyzed a drop more than or equal to 30% in the estimated GFR (eGFR) during the first year posttransplant. Results. Diabetes mellitus pretransplant and a drop more than or equal to 30% in the eGFR between 3 and 12 months predicted CKD stage 4 (odds ratio [OR] 4.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9-5.4, P<0.001 and OR 16.1, 95% CI 5.9-44.5, P<0.0001, respectively), the need for chronic dialysis (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-13.2, P=0.03 and OR 14.6, 95% CI 3.0-71.4, P<0.001, respectively), and all-cause mortality (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.2-2.9, P=0.004 and OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.6-4.4, P<0.001, respectively), more than 1 year after LT. Conclusions. Diabetes mellitus pretransplant and a drop more than or equal to 30% in the eGFR within the first year are strong predictors of advanced CKD, chronic dialysis, and death more than 1 year after LT. These easily determined clinical variables define a population at risk for CKD who should be targeted for renal protection strategies.