A catalogue of caldera unrest at Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand, using the Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI)

Caldera unrest occurs frequently at Taupo Volcanic Centre (TVC), New Zealand, occasionally resulting in deleterious socio-economic impacts. This large silicic volcano most recently erupted in 232 AD in an explosive, caldera-forming rhyolitic eruption, devastating the central North Island. Eruptions are preceded by volcanic unrest, often consisting of seismicity, deformation, degassing, and/or geothermal system changes. These phenomena may also occur due to non-magmatic processes, complicating eruption forecasting. As volcanic unrest may or may not lead to an eruption, it needs to be characterised to provide effective warnings; this is best achieved by understanding past unrest. In this research, a catalogue of caldera unrest at TVC is developed using an historical chronology methodology, spanning from 1872 to December 2011. The Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI), which is introduced by Potter et al. (2015), is estimated for the catalogue, demonstrating its use and providing a characterisation of unrest at TVC. Sixteen episodes of unrest are identified; 4 are classified as moderate unrest (VUI 3), and 12 are classified as minor unrest (VUI 2). There has been median interval of approximately 3 years between unrest episodes and a median unrest episode duration of just under 5 months. This research provides context for future caldera unrest crises at TVC and contributes to the global caldera unrest dataset.