Tracking Pandemic Severity Using Data on the Age Structure of Mortality: Lessons From the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Michigan

被引:6
作者
Chandra, Siddharth [1 ,2 ]
Christensen, Julia [2 ]
机构
[1] Michigan State Univ, Asian Studies Ctr, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
[2] Michigan State Univ, James Madison Coll, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA
关键词
EPIDEMIOLOGIC EVIDENCE; WAVES;
D O I
10.2105/AJPH.2021.306303
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Objectives. To test whether distortions in the age structure of mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Michigan tracked the severity of the pandemic. Methods. We calculated monthly excess deaths during the period of 1918 to 1920 by using monthly data on all-cause deaths for the period of 1912 to 1920 in Michigan. Next, we measured distortions in the age distribution of deaths by using the Kuiper goodness-of-fit test statistic comparing the monthly distribution of deaths by age in 1918 to 1920 with the baseline distribution for the corresponding month for 1912 to 1917. Results. Monthly distortions in the age distribution of deaths were correlated with excess deaths for the period of 1918 to 1920 in Michigan (r=.83; P<.001). Conclusions. Distortions in the age distribution of deaths tracked variations in the severity of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Public Health Implications. It may be possible to track the severity of pandemic activity with age-at-death data by identifying distortions in the age distribution of deaths. Public health authorities should explore the application of this approach to tracking the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of complete data coverage or accurate cause-of-death data.
引用
收藏
页码:S149 / S155
页数:7
相关论文
共 35 条
[1]   Epidemiologic characterization of the 1918 influenza pandemic summer wave in Copenhagen: Implications for pandemic control strategies [J].
Andreasen, Viggo ;
Viboud, Cecile ;
Simonsen, Lone .
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2008, 197 (02) :270-278
[2]  
[Anonymous], 1912, MICH MONTHL B VIT ST MICH MONTHL B VIT ST
[3]   Cross-Protection between Successive Waves of the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic: Epidemiological Evidence from US Army Camps and from Britain [J].
Barry, John M. ;
Viboud, Cecile ;
Simonsen, Lone .
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2008, 198 (10) :1427-1434
[4]  
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2020, 1918 PAND H1N1 VIR
[5]  
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics., 2020, DEATHS MORT DEATHS MORT
[6]   Pandemic Reemergence and Four Waves of Excess Mortality Coinciding With the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Michigan: Insights for COVID-19 [J].
Chandra, Siddharth ;
Christensen, Julia ;
Chandra, Madhur ;
Paneth, Nigel .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 2021, 111 (03) :430-437
[7]   Short-Term Birth Sequelae of the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in the United States: State-Level Analysis [J].
Chandra, Siddharth ;
Christensen, Julia ;
Mamelund, Svenn-Erik ;
Paneth, Nigel .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2018, 187 (12) :2585-2595
[8]   The evolution of pandemic influenza: evidence from India, 1918-19 [J].
Chandra, Siddharth ;
Kassens-Noor, Eva .
BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2014, 14
[9]   Death Patterns during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Chile [J].
Chowell, Gerardo ;
Simonsen, Lone ;
Flores, Jose ;
Miller, Mark A. ;
Viboud, Cecile .
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2014, 20 (11) :1803-1811
[10]   Age-Specific Excess Mortality Patterns During the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in Madrid, Spain [J].
Cilek, Laura ;
Chowell, Gerardo ;
Ramiro Farinas, Diego .
AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2018, 187 (12) :2511-2523