Colonization-extinction dynamics of an epiphyte metapopulation in a dynamic landscape

Metapopulation dynamics have received much attention in population biology and conservation. Most studies have dealt with species whose population turnover rate is much higher than the rate of patch turnover. Models of the dynamics in such systems have assumed a static patch landscape. The dynamics of many species, however, are likely to be significantly affected by the dynamics of their patches. We tested the relative importance of local conditions, connectivity, and dynamics of host tree patches on the metapopulation dynamics of a red-listed epiphytic moss, Neckera pennata, in Sweden. Repeated surveys of the species and its host trees were conducted at three sites over a period of six years. There was a positive effect of connectivity, and colonizations mainly occurred in the vicinity of occupied trees. Colonizations were also less likely on strongly leaning trees. Local extinctions sometimes occurred from small trees with low local abundances but were most often caused by treefall. Simulations of the future (100 years) dynamics of the system showed that the metapopulation size will be overestimated unless the increased local extinction rate imposed by the dynamics of the trees is accounted for. The simulations also suggested that local extinctions from standing trees may be disregarded in dynamic models for this species. This implies that the dynamics of N. pennata can be characterized as a patch-tracking metapopulation, where local extinctions are caused by patch destruction.