Bagging survival tree

被引：174

作者：

Hothorn, T

Lausen, B

Benner, A

Radespiel-Tröger, M

机构：

[1] Univ Erlangen Nurnberg, Dept Med Informat Biometry & Epidemiol, D-91054 Erlangen, Germany

[2] German Canc Res Ctr, Cent Unit Biostat, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany

[3] Populat Based Canc Registry Bavaria, D-91052 Erlangen, Germany

来源：

STATISTICS IN MEDICINE | 2004年 / 23卷 / 01期

关键词：

bootstrap aggregation; censored data; prognostic factors; Brier score;

D O I：

10.1002/sim.1593

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Predicted survival probability functions of censored event free survival are improved by bagging survival trees. We suggest a new method to aggregate survival trees in order to obtain better predictions for breast cancer and lymphoma patients. A set of survival trees based on B bootstrap samples is computed. We define the aggregated Kaplan-Meier curve of a new observation by the Kaplan-Meier curve of all observations identified by the B leaves containing the new observation. The integrated Brier score is used for the evaluation of predictive models. We analyse data of a large trial on node positive breast cancer patients conducted by the German Breast Cancer Study Group and a smaller 'pilot' study on diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, where prognostic factors are derived from microarray expression values. In addition, simulation experiments underline the predictive power of our proposal. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

引用

页码：77 / 91

页数：15

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