PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF THE VARIABLE-ORDER FRACTIONAL CHAOTIC ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM

Since ecological systems are history-dependent, incorporating fractional calculus and especially variable order ones could significantly improve the emulation of these systems. Nonetheless, in the literature, no study considers ecological processes by variable-order fractional (VOF) model. This study is motivated by this issue. At first, we propose to extend a predator-prey mathematical model with VOF derivatives. The underlying assumption in the proposed model lies in considering values of fractional derivatives as time-varying functions instead of constant parameters. Some system's dynamic features are investigated, and then the control of the proposed system is studied. To this end, a nonlinear model predictive control is offered for the VOF system. The necessary optimality and sufficient conditions for solving the nonlinear optimal control problem in the form of fractional calculus with variable-order derivative are formulated, and the controller's design procedure is delineated. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate the developed control technique's effectiveness and performance for the VOF predator-prey model.