Red cell distribution width as a novel marker for predicting high-risk from upper gastrointestinal bleeding patients

Background In upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) patients, early risk stratification allows appropriate therapy that may be helpful for reducing morbidity and mortality. Objectives to evaluate the efficacy of red-cell distribution width (RDW) for prediction of high-risk in UGIB patients. Methods We conducted a clinical retrospective observational study based on data for UGIB patients from 2012 to 2013. The primary outcome was the high-risk UGIB, defined as those who required urgent intervention and/or 30-days mortality. RDW was categorized into four quartiles: Q1 (<12.8%), Q2 (12.9-14.4%), Q3 (14.5-16.5%), and Q4 (>16.6%), and multivariable analysis was performed after adjustment of multiple other risk factor. We also evaluated the efficacy of addition of RDW scores to the Pre-endoscopic Rockall Score (PRS) and the Glasgow Blatchford Score (GBS) scoring system. Results Of 360 UGIB patients, 229 (63.6%) were high risk. In multivariable analysis, Q3 and Q4 were strongly associated with high risk; odds ratio (95% Confidence Interval) was 3.144 (1.250-7.905) and 4.182 (1.483-11.790) respectively (all p< 0.05). For lower GBS score group (< 6), the incidence of high risk was higher in Q4 (30%) and Q3 (20%) than in Q2 (12.5%) and Q1 (11.4%). For lower PRS group (< 2), the incidence of high-risk was higher in Q4 (73.7%) and Q3 (57.1%) than in Q1 (35.4%). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed higher discrimination power in PRS + RDW (Area Under Curve [AUC] = 0.749) than PRS (AUC = 0.715) alone (p = 0.036). Otherwise GBS + RDW (AUC = 0.873) did not show a significant higher discrimination power than the GBS (AUC = 0.864) alone (p = 0.098). Conclusions For UGIB patients, a high RDW (>14.5%) was strongly associated with high risk UGIB. In practice, the combination of RDW with the PRS scoring indexes may increase the accuracy of risk stratification.