Seasonal forecasting of intense tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific basins

被引：16

作者：

Choi, Woosuk ^{[1
]}

Ho, Chang-Hoi ^{[1
]}

Jin, Chun-Sil ^{[2
]}

Kim, Jinwon ^{[3
]}

Feng, Song ^{[4
]}

Park, Doo-Sun R. ^{[1
]}

Schemm, Jae-Kyung E. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, 1 Gwanak Ro, Seoul 151747, South Korea

[2] Natl Ctr Environm Predict, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD USA

[3] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA

[4] Univ Arkansas, Dept Geosci, Fayetteville, AR 72701 USA

来源：

CLIMATE DYNAMICS | 2016年 / 47卷 / 9-10期

关键词：

Seasonal forecast; Intense tropical cyclone; North Atlantic; Western North Pacific; Track-pattern-based model; HURRICANE ACTIVITY; TYPHOON TRACKS; PREDICTION; CLIMATE; MODEL; DISTURBANCES; IMPROVEMENTS; FREQUENCY; SYSTEM;

D O I：

10.1007/s00382-016-3013-y

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanying torrential rain and powerful wind gusts often cause substantial socio-economic losses in the regions around their landfall. This study analyzes intense TCs in the North Atlantic (NA) and the western North Pacific (WNP) basins during the period 1982-2013. Different intensity criteria are used to define intense TCs for these two basins, category 1 and above for NA and category 3 and above for WNP, because the number of TCs in the NA basin is much smaller than that in the WNP basin. Using a fuzzy clustering method, intense TC tracks in the NA and the WNP basins are classified into two and three representative patterns, respectively. On the basis of the clustering results, a track-pattern-based model is then developed for forecasting the seasonal activities of intense TCs in the two basins. Cross-validation of the model skill for 1982-2013 as well as verification of a forecast for the 2014 TC season suggest that our intense TC model is applicable to operational uses.

引用

页码：3063 / 3075

页数：13

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