Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Introduction into Spain by Legal Import of Live Pigs

被引：5

作者：

Munoz-Perez, Carolina ^{[1
]}

Bosch, Jaime ^{[1
]}

Ito, Satoshi ^{[1
]}

Martinez-Aviles, Marta ^{[2
]}

Sanchez-Vizcaino, Jose Manuel ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Complutense Madrid, VISAVET Hlth Surveillance Ctr, Anim Hlth Dept, Madrid 28040, Spain

[2] Anim Hlth Res Ctr CISA INIA CSIC, Madrid 28130, Spain

来源：

PATHOGENS | 2022年 / 11卷 / 01期

基金：

欧盟地平线“2020”;

关键词：

African swine fever; import; live pig; quantitative risk assessment; Spain; VIRUS;

D O I：

10.3390/pathogens11010076

中图分类号：

Q93 [微生物学];

学科分类号：

071005 ; 100705 ;

摘要：

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world's leading pig producers. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 x 10(-4)), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented herein could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.

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页数：10

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