Estimating carbon in savanna ecosystems: rational distribution of effort

Minimising the cost of repeatedly estimating C (C) stocks is crucial to the financial viability of projects that seek to sell C credits. Depending on the price of C, this may imply less or more sampling effort than would be applied for science objectives. In systems with heterogeneous C pools, such as savannas, this translates into a variable-effort sampling strategy that maximises the marginal additional C that can be claimed per incremental unit of effort expended. Analysis of a savanna in north-eastern South Africa indicates relatively modest returns per hectare due to the small C quantities and low sequestration rates. Under these conditions, areas in excess of 1,000 ha and infrequent sampling frequencies of 5-10 years are required to make such projects financially viable. For such projects the sample variance, number of samples, cost per sample and establishment costs have negligible impacts on financial viability. It was also found that the soil-C pool contributes up to three times the net returns of the aboveground C pool and provides a strong argument to monitor soil C for certification and market trading. The financial viability estimates, however, do not include the management or opportunity costs incurred in changing the land use. The economies of scale identified in this study combined with the massive area covered by savannas indicate that these additional costs can be covered. Further research is recommended to quantify these costs and interrogate the feasibility of large scale (in excess of 10,000 ha) C-sink projects in savanna systems.