Simulation of urban scenarios using a cellular automaton to model the growth of Campinas - SP, Brazil

The urban dynamics analysed by geographic information systems contributes to the identification of local specificities of space occupation and transformation. This study analyses the spatial growth based on cellular automata for the proposition of future scenarios of the expansion of north-northwest area of Campinas-sp, Brazil. The modelling was performed by sleuth software, which is based on the Clarke Urban Growth Model, and requires information on land use, slope, road network, hill shade, excluded areas and urban areas to simulate urban growth up to 2040. The studied area showed a growth trend with constant dynamics of expansion and densification from existing nucleus of buildings and along the road network. The limiting factors of the expansion were the large unbuilt institutional areas, preservation areas and rural properties. Therefore, the urban growth model simulated by sleuth was adequate for the analysis of physical-environmental and infrastructure factors that determine the urban dynamics.