The Integrated Impact of Drought on Crop Yield and Farmers' Livelihood in Semi-Arid Rural Areas in China

Drought has a profound impact on crop yield and the subsistence farming economy in arid and semi-arid lands of developing countries. It creates insecurity in the food supply and livelihood of rural farmers, leading to different livelihood trajectories and transformations. However, a primary challenge is to examine the complexity and location-specificity of drought impact. This study proposes a conceptual framework to understand the integrated drought impact on Yuzhong County in Gansu Province, China. Specifically, the study applies the standardized precipitation index at different time scales to observe drought changes from 1960 to 2017 and estimates the correlation with crop yield. Then, farmers in the northern, central, and southern regions of Yuzhong County were categorized using two-step cluster analysis, based on survey data collected from 1013 interviews conducted in the three regions. The study explores the impact of drought on the livelihood and food security of different clusters of farmers and analyzes their livelihood trajectories and transformations. The results showed that the drastic years with moderate and severe droughts were 1981-1983, 1997, and 2011-2012. Drought was significantly correlated with crop yield, and the effect of SPI12 was more severe. Five clusters of farmers in the southern regions of Yuzhong county were affected by drought with large drought disaster areas and serious economic losses, leading to high rates of affordability deficit and food insecurity, especially in the southern region. As a result, farmers have been adapting their livelihoods to drought, transforming toward mixed livelihoods in the northern region and part-time agricultural livelihoods in the central and southern regions. This study recommends an increase in public investment in water conservancy and irrigation facilities and suggests that locations and policies be utilized to promote the transformation of farmers' livelihoods to make them more resilient.