University dropout - A structural equation approach to discrete-time survival analysis

University dropout is a politically and economically important factor. While a number of studies address this issue cross-sectionally by analyzing different cohorts, or retrospectively via questionnaires, few of them are truly longitudinal and focus on the individual as the unit of interest. In contrast to these studies, an individual differences perspective is adopted in the present paper. For this purpose, a hands-on introduction to a recently proposed structural equation (SEM) approach to discrete-time survival analysis is provided (Muthen & Masyn, 2005). In a next step, a prospective study with N = 1096 students, observed across four semesters, is introduced. As expected, average university grade proved to be an important predictor of future dropout, while high-school grade-point average (GPA) yielded no incremental predictive validity but was completely mediated by university grade. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity, three latent classes could be identified with differential predictor-criterion relations, suggesting the need to pay closer attention to the composition of the student population.