Transient Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics and the Window of Opportunity for Establishment of Immigrants

To what extent does landscape genetic structure bear the signature of arrival order of lineages during population assembly? Rapid genetic adaptation of resident populations founded by early colonists to local conditions might prevent establishment of later-arriving lineages, resulting in an evolution-mediated priority effect. This might result in a limited window of opportunity for establishment during which the resident population did not have sufficient time yet to monopolize the patch through local adaptation. The length of this window of opportunity is expected to depend on the degree to which early colonists and immigrants are preadapted to local habitat conditions. We present an intraspecific competition model of the initial transient population and evolutionary dynamics that quantifies the window of opportunity for establishment for asexual species. The model explicitly addresses the long-lasting effects of evolution-mediated priority effects by tracking lineages through time. Our results show that the difference in initial preadaptation between early colonists and late immigrants and the speed of evolution codetermine the window of opportunity for establishment. Our results also suggest that local populations should often be dominated by descendants of just a few early colonist lineages and that landscape genetic structure should often reflect the legacy of colonization history.